Could Smith and Warner have changed the result?

To answer the question I thought to crunch some numbers, assuming that Travis Head and Marcus Harris, who were Australia’s two top scorers, were their replacements.


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In 2014/15, Steve Smith scored 769 runs at an average of 128.16

In 2014/15, David Warner scored 427 runs at an average of 53.37

In that test series, Smith and Warner were Australia’s highest and second-highest run scorers.

In 2018/19, Travis Head scored 237 runs at 33.85

In 2018/19, Marcus Harris scored 258 runs at 36.85

This represents 495 runs compared to 1,196 runs, a difference of 701 runs in favour of Smith and Warner from 2014/15.

If we average that out per test, then it equates to a difference of 175.25 difference per test.

Now, let’s look at the scorelines.

In Adelaide, India won by 31 runs. Adding 175.25 runs to the score, Australia would have won by 144.25 runs.

In Perth, Australia won by 146 runs. Adding 175.25 runs to the score, Australia would have won by 321.25 runs.

In Melbourne, India won by 137 runs. Adding 175.25 runs to the score, Australia would have won by 38.25 runs.

In other words, Australia would have won 3-0.

That, however, may not be fair, as Melbourne, for the third test, involved declarations by India, and, with Smith and Warner in the side, India would have been less likely to have been so generous.

More likely, Melbourne would have been a draw.

So Australia would have won 2-0, the same scoreline that there was in 2014/15.


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